Are you trying to decide if now is the right time to list or if you can negotiate more on your next purchase in The Village at Castle Pines? One metric can quickly frame the answer: months of supply. When you understand how many months of inventory the market is working through, you can set smarter pricing, write stronger offers, and plan your timing with confidence. In this guide, you’ll learn what months of supply means, how it’s calculated locally, how it shifts across micro-segments in The Village, and how to use it to your advantage. Let’s dive in.
What is months of supply?
Months of supply, often called months of inventory, estimates how long it would take to sell the current active listings at the present sales pace. It is a snapshot of supply versus demand at a point in time.
The standard formula is simple: MOS = Active listings ÷ Average monthly closed sales. Many analysts use the last 3 months of closed sales to smooth out short-term swings.
Professionals use general thresholds as a guide, not hard rules:
- Seller’s market: MOS below roughly 3 months
- Balanced market: MOS around 3 to 6 months
- Buyer’s market: MOS above roughly 6 months
How MOS is calculated in The Village
Because The Village at Castle Pines is a smaller, high-value community, a single listing or sale can swing the numbers. To reduce noise, a common neighborhood approach is a 3-month rolling calculation and active listings only in the count. Pending or under-contract homes are not included in the active total.
Here is how that looks in practice:
- Choose your period: Use the most recent 3 months of closed sales for the denominator.
- Count active listings: Pull a clean count of true actives within The Village at Castle Pines.
- Compute sales pace: Divide the total closed sales in the period by 3 to get average monthly sales.
- Calculate MOS: Active listings ÷ average monthly closed sales.
Illustrative examples to show how MOS can vary:
- Example A: 2 active listings and 1 closed sale in the last month. MOS = 2 ÷ 1 = 2 months, which leans seller-friendly. The sample is tiny, so verify with a 3-month pace.
- Example B: 8 active listings and 1 sale in the last 3 months. Average monthly sales are 1 ÷ 3 = 0.33. MOS = 8 ÷ 0.33 = 24 months, signaling a slow segment where sellers should expect longer marketing times.
Small samples are common in The Village. Always pair MOS with context on days on market, list-to-sale price ratio, and current pending activity.
Why MOS matters to you
For sellers, MOS helps you set a pricing strategy, estimate time on market, and anticipate negotiation leverage. Lower MOS suggests stronger demand and the potential for multiple offers. Higher MOS points to more competition among sellers and a higher chance of concessions.
For buyers, MOS signals how fast you may need to move and how to structure your offer. In low-MOS environments, escalation clauses and tight timelines can help, while high-MOS conditions may allow you to negotiate price, credits, and flexible terms.
Micro-segments in The Village at Castle Pines
Not every property type in The Village behaves the same. MOS often diverges across product types and price bands.
Golf-course estates
These custom and semi-custom homes on premium lots tend to have fewer buyers each month. MOS can look elevated even when qualified demand is healthy because the sales pace is slower. Days on market may be longer, and price reductions are a common tool to find the market.
What it means for you:
- Sellers: Price-to-market and presentation are critical. Expect a longer runway and focus on reaching in-market, qualified buyers.
- Buyers: You may have more room to negotiate on price, credits, and timing, subject to the property’s unique features and views.
Lock-and-leave enclaves
Townhomes and condos with HOA-managed exteriors often see higher velocity and broader buyer pools. MOS in this segment can trend lower, especially during peak months, which can create a more competitive feel.
What it means for you:
- Sellers: List close to market value and prepare for quicker showings. Pre-market exposure can help capture demand fast.
- Buyers: Act quickly when the right fit appears. Consider clean terms and strong pre-approval to stand out.
Standard single-family homes
Mid-size single-family homes often align more closely with broader Castle Pines and Douglas County averages. With more comparable sales, MOS here tends to be more stable than the luxury segment.
What it means for you:
- Sellers: Use recent comparable sales and current pending activity to set a competitive price.
- Buyers: Rely on comps and days on market to shape offer strength and terms.
Price bands change the story
MOS usually rises with price because the buyer pool narrows as you move up in value. In The Village, that means a million-dollar-plus estate can show a very different MOS than a lower price point in an attached community. Lot quality, views, and HOA fees also influence demand within each band.
If you are evaluating a listing or planning an offer, look at MOS within the most relevant band for your property or search. A single headline number for the entire neighborhood can hide meaningful differences.
Seasonality and outside forces
Seasonality matters. Spring typically brings more buyers, so MOS often dips during that period. Winter usually shows higher MOS as activity slows. Year-over-year comparisons can help you separate seasonal patterns from larger shifts.
Mortgage rates affect purchasing power and can change MOS quickly. New construction or spec inventory can also skew active counts, especially at higher price bands, because builders manage timelines differently than individual sellers.
Read MOS with other key metrics
MOS is powerful, but it is not enough on its own. Pair it with:
- Days on market: Confirms the speed of buyer activity.
- List-to-sale price ratio: Shows how close homes sell to asking.
- Pending ratio: Pending sales relative to active listings reveal current momentum.
- New listings versus closed sales: Signals whether supply or demand is shifting.
Together, these give you a full picture of competition, pricing power, and timing.
Strategy by MOS level
For sellers
Low MOS (seller-leaning):
- Pricing: Consider pricing near the top of market, while staying aligned with recent comps and appraisal risk.
- Negotiation: Focus on terms as well as price. Tight inspection timelines and strong earnest money may matter as much as the number.
- Preparation: Make the home show-ready. Professional presentation helps capture demand quickly.
Balanced MOS:
- Pricing: Stay competitive to avoid extended days on market. Consider modest incentives if needed.
- Negotiation: Expect customary contingencies. Favor pre-approved buyers and strong financing.
High MOS (buyer-leaning):
- Pricing: Set a realistic price based on recent sales and be prepared for adjustments.
- Negotiation: Be open to credits, closing cost assistance, and flexible timing. A pre-inspection can remove friction for buyers.
Across all MOS levels, tailor your plan by micro-segment and price band. If your timeline is flexible, you can wait for conditions to improve. If you need to move, price to meet the current buyer pool.
For buyers
Low MOS (seller-leaning):
- Offer strategy: Consider escalation clauses, larger earnest money, and cleaner terms. Move quickly but with clear risk tolerance.
- Contingencies: Shorten or remove only after a careful review of appraisal and inspection risks with your agent.
Balanced MOS:
- Offer strategy: Use fresh comps and days on market to frame a fair offer with customary contingencies.
High MOS (buyer-leaning):
- Negotiation: Ask for price improvements, seller-paid closing costs, or repairs. You often have more time to evaluate and negotiate.
Even when the overall market leans one way, a specific micro-segment can move differently. A golf-course estate with elevated MOS may allow concessions even if attached homes are moving fast.
Getting current numbers for The Village
For live months-of-supply figures, rely on authoritative local sources: REColorado MLS for active and closed counts, the Colorado Association of REALTORS for methodology context, and Douglas County public records for verification. A 3-month rolling view by property type and price band usually gives the clearest read at the neighborhood level.
If you see fewer than 10 active listings or fewer than 3 to 5 monthly sales in your chosen slice, add a note that MOS may be volatile and confirm with additional indicators.
Work with an advisor who knows the micro-markets
In a small, diverse community like The Village at Castle Pines, success comes from segment-level insight, precise pricing, and polished presentation. You deserve data that reflects your home’s exact position, marketing that reaches qualified buyers, and negotiation grounded in real-time numbers.
If you are planning a move in The Village, we can help you read MOS by segment, align pricing to your goals, and position your property to capture demand. If you are buying, we will help you match offer strength to the true level of competition and secure the right terms.
Ready to talk strategy for your home or search? Connect with Stacie Chadwick for a data-driven plan tailored to The Village at Castle Pines.
FAQs
What is months of supply in real estate?
- Months of supply estimates how long it would take to sell the current active listings at the current sales pace, using Active ÷ Average monthly sales.
Is a low MOS always good for sellers in The Village?
- Low MOS favors sellers, but pricing, days on market, and list-to-sale ratio still matter. Overpricing in a low-MOS segment can backfire.
Why does MOS vary between golf estates and townhomes?
- Buyer pools and price points differ. Luxury estates have fewer monthly buyers, so MOS can look higher, while attached homes often move faster with lower MOS.
How often should I check MOS before listing?
- Review MOS monthly, and use a 3-month rolling view to smooth swings. Confirm with recent comps, pending activity, and days on market.
Can a single sale change MOS in The Village?
- Yes. The Village is a small, high-value market. One new listing or closing can shift MOS quickly, which is why segment-level context is key.
